OMRI DAILY DIGEST
Vol. 1, No. 5, 6 January 1995

HUNGARY SAYS OIL SPILL WILL TAKE MONTHS TO
CLEAN UP. An official from Hungary's National Water
Administration on 5 January said it will take months to
remove all traces of the pollution caused by an oil spill in
neighboring Romania, Reuters reported the same day. A
leak from the Romanian Suplacul de Barcau oil field into
the Barcau River was reported on 30 December. Oil spilled
over into the Hungarian part of the river (known as the
Berettyo) earlier this week. Janos Tarjan was quoted as
saying that the slick had polluted a 57-kilometer stretch of
the river in Romania but that Hungary had managed to
contain its spread by using booms and floating barriers.
Hungarian workmen have reportedly removed more than
125 cubic meters of oil sludge from the river this week.
Officials said they thought oil is no longer leaking into the
river but noted they have received no details from the
Romanian authorities. -- Jan Cleave, OMRI, Inc.

[As of 1200 CET]

Compiled by Pete Baumgartner and Steve Kettle

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Editorial- NATO Expansion: Wait and See

  MICHAEL E. BROWN
  
  (C) 1995 THE WASHINGTON POST (LEGI-SLATE ARTICLE NO. 219300)

      I take exception to the arguments for NATO expansion made by Peter
Rodman ["4 More for NATO," op-ed, Dec. 13] and Henry Kissinger ["Expand NATO
Now," op-ed, Dec. 19]. Their case for bringing Poland, Hungary, the Czech
Republic and Slovakia into NATO quickly is based on four fundamentally flawed
contentions.

      First, it is said that Russian aggression in Europe is highly likely --
"inevitable," according to Rodman. It is certainly true that Russia has a
long imperialist past, but it is also true that Russia does not now pose a
military threat to Central Europe. Russia's military is in disarray at both
the operational and ministerial levels. Western defense experts believe that
it would take Moscow at least a year or two to field an offensive military
capability, should it be inclined to do so. NATO leaders will therefore have
ample time to extend security guarantees to Central Europe if and when this
becomes necessary.
      Second, it is said that NATO should extend membership to states in
Central Europe, because, according to Kissinger, they "feel threatened" and
"may drift out of their association with Europe" if NATO membership is not
forthcoming. Poland and Hungary, however, are reducing military conscription,
and the Czech Army is reducing its mechanized and infantry forces. These are
not the actions of states worried about military threats. And although
Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic will undoubtedly be disappointed if
NATO membership is not forthcoming, this would not lead them to turn from
Western Europe and the prospect of joining the European Union. As Czech
President Vaclav Havel observed, "We have always belonged to the western
sphere of European civilization."
      Third, it is said that if NATO fails to extend security guarantees to
Germany's eastern neighbors, the "security vacuum" in the region will lead
Germany to forge bilateral ties with these states; a German-Russian
confrontation could follow. No doubt this must be avoided. Significantly,
however, Germany is not pushing for rapid expansion of NATO. Germany's main
concern is that the American urge to move quickly will trigger a backlash in
Russia. If Germany was worried about a security vacuum in Central Europe, it
would be urging the United States to move faster -- not slower -- on NATO
expansion.
      The fourth and final argument made by advocates of expansionis that
Russia's response would be muted. This is unlikely. No matter how NATO
expansion is packaged, it would involve American nuclear guarantees to states
in Central Europe. This would be seen by many in Moscow as an aggressive act,
and it would strengthen the hands of radical Russian nationalists, many of
whom reject democratic rule. A return to totalitarianism in Russia would be
more likely. Even if reformers hung on to power, they would have to adopt a
tougher foreign policy line.
     In all probability, Russian leaders would interpret NATO expansion as a
delineation of spheres of influence in Central Europe, and they would move to
establish greater control over non-NATO areas. Russian aggression would be
encouraged, not discouraged, by NATO expansion. Four countries would be
brought into NATO, but eight -- including the Baltic states -- would be left
out. Russian withdrawal from the Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE)  treaty
is not inconceivable. A new line would be drawn in Europe, a new Cold War
could ensue, and the West would have itself to blame for bringing this about.
     We must not be sanguine about Russia's imperialistic history, its
aggressive policies today in the Caucasus in particular, or the prospects for
democracy in Russia. It is possible that Russia will embark on an
expansionist course in Europe. But it is also possible that Russia will
continue to evolve in benign ways. It would be the height of folly for the
West to undermine this process.
     There is no strategic or political rationale for NATO expansion at the
present time. NATO expansion should be tied to strategic circumstances: If
Russia takes steps to threaten Central Europe militarily, NATO should offer
membership to as many states in the region as possible.
     Some of the steps that should trigger NATO expansion include: Russian
withdrawal from the CFE treaty; a buildup of Russian conventional forces near
neighboring states in the West; the use of military threats against any
neighboring state; discontinuation of the denuclearization process; violation
of Moscow's pledges to respect Ukraine's sovereignty; absorption of Ukraine
or Belarus into the Russian Federation; or transformation of the Commonwealth
of Independent States into a federal entity.
     NATO should declare that it will expand if necessary, but that it will
not expand until strategic circumstances call for this step. This would give
Russian leaders a powerful incentive to pursue benign policies toward its
neighbors in the West.
     Some will argue that this course is too risky, that NATO will not extend
membership when push comes to shove. I would argue, to the contrary, that
NATO is more likely to expand if and when real threats to vital interests
emerge, than now -- when the Russian military threat to Europe is
nonexistent. Whatever risks NATO would run by holding off can be minimized by
developing a strong consensus within the alliance on its expansion strategy.
     I have more faith in NATO's ability to act decisively in the face of
aggression than in Russia's ability to accept provocation without
retaliation. NATO should adopt a nuanced strategy that maximizes the West's
chances of seeing a new security order develop in Europe and guards against
the possibility of Russian belligerence.
The writer is senior fellow and editor of "International Security" at the
Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University.

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06 JANUARY 1995
Volume 2, Issue 5

REGIONAL NEWS
-------------

**International Outrage at Russia**
  Hungary's foreign minister and the current chairman of the OSCE or
  Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe has condemned
  Russia's attack on Chechnya. Yesterday Laszlo Kovacs called for
  Russia to stop its military operations in the rebellious region
  immediately. Kovacs says that would pave the way for peace
  negotiations which he maintains are the only way to resolve the
  conflict. Yesterday Russian President Boris Yeltsin agreed to brief
  OSCE representatives on the situation in Chechnya. But despite the
  fact that Yeltsin promised Wednesday that aerial bombing of the
  Chechen capital of Grozny would stop, Agence France Press is
  reporting that a bomb hit the presidential palace yesterday. Still a
  group of Russian members of parliament says the Chechen rebels are
  still in control of Grozny.

**Oil Clean-up Begins in Hungary**
  Hungary said yesterday it will take months to clean up an oil spill 
  in a river at its border with Romania. The oil leaked out of 
  Romania's Suplacul de Barcau oil field into the Barcau River. It was 
  discovered December 30th.  The slick has polluted a 36 mile stretch 
  of the river, but Hungarian Water Administration officials say they 
  managed to stop the oil from spreading with booms and floating 
  barriers on its section of the river. The Hungarians don't think any 
  more fresh oil is leaking into the river, but add they haven't 
  gotten any new information from Romania.

**New Guidelines for Hungarian Workers**
  The Hungarian Labor Inspectorate today will unveil 100,000 new 
  worker safety brochures which are being funded by the US government. 
  The brochures tell workers how to avoid hazards ranging from exposed
  electrical wires to eye strain from squinting at computer monitors.
  They're part of a $120,000 labor safety program that's also been 
  carried out in Poland. According to Hungarian occupational safety 
  official Janos Gador, Hungarian inspectors who participated in a 
  training program last spring learned how their western counterparts 
  combine occupational safety, such as machine safety, with 
  occupational health, like workplace air quality. Traditionally in 
  Hungary preventive measures and health risks have been kept  
  separate.

  "It is true they are not authorized to inspect occupational health 
  in the workplaces. But I think that after these courses even they 
  look with a different eye at the conditions."

  Half of Hungary's inspectors participated in last spring's program. 
  The rest will have to wait for further US funding before they can 
  also be trained

**Slovak-Hungarian Relations Warming?**
  A delegation from Hungary's three leading opposition parties will 
  visit Slovakia next week for two days of talks and rallies with 
  ethnic Hungarian groups. It'll be the first contact between the 
  three ethnic Hungarian parties in Slovakia and the opposition groups 
  since nationalist Slovak Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar returned to 
  power in December. Hungarian Democratic Forum President Lajos Fur 
  says there'll be discussions on foreign policy issues, the question 
  of Hungarian minorities and how to improve relations between Hungary
  and its neighbors. Fur says despite the nationalist rhetoric of the
  National Party he's optimistic that Meciar is interested in 
  resolving problems with the 600 thousand Hungarians living in 
  southern Slovakia.

BUSINESS NEWS
-------------

**Hungary Modifies Market**
  Budapest Stock Exchange officials say some changes and new tax
  laws will encourage investment this year.  One new development
  could lead to more liquidity in so-called portfolio investments.
  Joszef Rotyis, Chief executive officer at the stock exchange,
  explains how this will work:

  "They can buy a security on the first day of the year
  and they can sell it the second day, they can have it all
  the year. At the end of the year, the brokerage company or the
  bank will calculate your average investment and that is the
  average investment you can deduct from your taxes."

  Previously, investors had to hold onto securities for three
  years, whether or not they still had confidence in the
  investment.  Making an investor's average yearly balance tax
  deductible is designed to maintain trading volumes.  Rotyis says
  this is an incentive for investors to keep their money in the
  exchange longer, even though they can sell away their investments
  more quickly.

  Another change -- the bourse's 10 percent dividend tax will now
  be collected by brokerage houses. The exchange also plans to open a
  so-called free market, to encompass large volume companies now
  free-wheeling on the over- the-counter exchange. Rotyis explains 
  what sort of firms will appear here, and why:

  "Banks, telecommunication companies, energy sector,
  pharmaceutical companies...The market capitalization of that market,
  which is outside the stock exchange is 2 and a half times higher 
  than the market cap on the stock exchange."

  Companies on the new free-market exchange will face less-
  stringent reporting requirements than those on the bourse.
  Rotyis says eventually, smaller companies will enter the free-
  market and -- with stepped-up privatization -- many larger firms
  will move to the more traditional stock market.

**Pipeline Reopens**
  Russian crude oil is again flowing along the so-called Friendship
  pipeline to central Europe, following a brief blockage in Ukraine
  about a week ago. But the oil will be more expensive, due to a
  dramatic increase in Ukraine's oil transit tariff. Russian
  exporters claim Ukraine is charging 5 dollars and 20 cents a ton,
  compared to a dollar 32 cents last year. Russian oil exports to
  the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia have resumed at up to
  45,000 tons a day, according to the Slovakian state oil company
  Slovnaft.

SURVEY
------

**The Czech Republic's European Union Difficulties**

  Poland, Hungary the Czech Republic and Slovakia all see
  Austria as a new supporter of their bids to join Europe's most
  exclusive club of nations. However the Czech Republic has a
  number of potentially difficult issues to resolve with Vienna.

  One concerns the Sudetenlanders who became Austrian
  citizens after they were expelled from the then
  Czechoslovakia after the second world war. Demands for
  compensation by Sudeten Germans in Germany have received
  support from some members of the German government.
  German Finance Minister Theo Waigel has gone so far as to
  link German support for the Czech Republic's EU membership
  application with progress on the issue. Another possible
  source of conflict with Vienna is the Temelin nuclear power
  plant, which Prague is building less than 70 miles from the
  Czech-Austrian border. Vienna has already expressed concern
  about the project. CET spoke with Czech Deputy Foreign
  Minister Pawel Bratinka and asked him to what extent he
  thought his government could count on Austrian support from
  within the EU.

  Bratinka: We do hope that they will be willing to share the
  benefits of membership with us in the foreseeable future. We
  do strongly hope that our membership, although it's not a
  question of next year or the next, but it's something that will
  take place before the end of the millennium. We don't see any
  reason why it should be later.

  CET: There have been a few problems with the Germans over
  the Sudeten Germans. There are also Sudeten Germans in
  Austria and also the Austrians have expressed unhappiness
  with the Temelin project. Do you think these are going to be
  used by Austria as bargaining chips in their support for Czech
  application.

  Bratinka: I don't think they will become weighty bargaining
  chips. The European Union has been possible only because
  most countries in Europe decided to overcome the burdens and
  the memories of World War II. If too many of the European
  countries kept their memories fixed on what took place in the
  war, or before or after the war there would have been no EU.
  We hope that those responsible for future negotiations know
  that digging up the memories, especially those connected
  with war, then European integration would be harmed. And, on
  our part we are determined not to contribute to such things.

  CET: What about Temelin? Do you think that might be a bone
  of contention?

  Bratinka: Well, there are many nuclear power stations in
  Europe. Some of them are very close to Austria's borders and
  whenever we write that fact we are reminded of the fact
  that, well, OK, there are many power stations, but they are
  equipped with the latest or most modern safeguard
  technology. We are also going to equip Temelin with the
  latest safeguards and we think we should not be treated
  differently than other countries which have nuclear stations
  on their territories.

  CET: But do you expect Austria just to leave that question
  aside or to be a bit harder than that?

  Bratinka: Well, you know, politicians are always raising
  questions. We are not going to change our position and we
  hope that reason will prevail.

ABOUT CET ON-LINE
-----------------

* CET On-Line - copyright 1994 Word Up! Inc. and Cameron M. Hewes.
  All rights reserved.  This publication may be freely forwarded, 
  archived, or otherwise distributed in electronic format only so 
  long as this notice, and all other information contained in this 
  publication is included.  For-profit distribution of this 
  publication or the information contained herein is strictly 
  prohibited.  For more information, contact the publishers.

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Alapitvany tamogatja.

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Reposting is supported by Hungarian Human Rights Foundation News
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